Wednesday, April 18th, 2012

Did the Trends of the 2012 NCAA Tournament hold up?

Published on April 14, 2012 by Scott Shirley   ·   No Comments

Before the 2012 NCAA tournament began I had a list of trends from the past tournaments. All these stats are from 1985. The tournament went to 64 teams in 1985. So check out below if these trends held up in this year’s NCAA tournament (Bold)

- 1 seeds are 108-0 vs. 16th seeds (100 %) (4-0, although Syracuse was in a battle with UNC Asheville)

- 2 seeds are 104-4 vs. 15th seeds (96 %) Last time (2-2, The Friday were 2 seeds Duke and Missouri lost was one of the best days in tournament history. Duke lost to Lehigh and Missouri lost to Norfolk State)

- 3 seeds are 92-16 vs. 14th seeds (85 %) (4-0, Florida State had the only scare but pulled it out against St. Bonaventure)

- 4 seeds are 85-23 vs. 13th seeds (79 %) (3-1, Michigan lost to Ohio)

- 5 seeds are 72-36 vs. 12th seeds (67 %) (2-2, VCU beat Wichita State and South Florida upset Temple)

- 6 seeds are 72-36 vs. 13th seeds (67 %)(2-2, NC State beat San Diego State and Colorado beat UNLV)

- 7 seeds are 65-43 vs. 10th seeds (60 %) (2-2, Purdue beat St. Mary’s and Xavier topped Notre Dame)

- 8 seeds are 57-51 vs. 9th seeds (53%) (3-1, St. Louis was the only 9 seed to win)

- Just 14th of the number 1 seeds have lost in the round of 32 (All number 1 seeds got past the round of 32)

- 2 seeds are 70-34 in the round of the 32 (2-0 this year thanks to Duke and Missouri losing)

- In fact, over the last 15 years only once have all 2 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16. (Only 2 this season Kansas and Ohio State)

- Out of 108 regions since 1985, only 14 of the times (13 percent) have all the first four seeds advanced to the sweet 16. (The East and South Bracket both had 3 out of the top 4 seeds advance to the sweet 16 in their region)

- Since 1985 only 10 times has the 8 seed reached the sweet 16. (no 8 seeds reached the final four)

- In 25 out of the last 27 years at least one double digit seed has reach the sweet 16. In 12 out of the last 15 years at least two double digit seeds reached the sweet 16. (3 double digit seeds reached the Sweet 16 : Xavier, Ohio and NC State)

- 12 seeds have more success at making the sweet 16 than 11 seeds, and 8 and 9 seeds combined. (No 12 seed to the Sweet 16 this year. A 10 seed, 11 seed and 13 seed made the sweet 16)

- 12 seeds have won at least 2 games; 10 out of the last 11 years. (12 seeds won two games in this year’s Tournament)

- The number overall one since has only reached the final four 3 out of the last 8 years. The 2007 Florida team is the only one to win a title. (Kentucky reached the Final Four and won the title )

- 9 out of the last 13 champions have been number 1 seeds. Since 1985, 1 seeds have won 16 titles. (Kentucky was the only number 1 seed in this year’s Final Four and they won it all)

- Since 1985, only 4 number 2 seeds have won the title. (This year two 2 seeds were at the final four Kansas and Ohio State)

- Since 1985 1, 2, and 3 seeds have won 29 out of the 33 champions. Two 6 seeds have won a title and a 4 seed and 8 seed have also won. (Louisville made this year’s final four as a 4 seed)

- Two number 1 seeds have only met in the title game 6 times. (Won’t happen this year)

- 18 out of the last 27 years two teams from the same conference have made the final four. (This year 4 different conference are represented)

- No team has won a title after losing their first conference tournament game. Sorry Indiana, Georgetown, Notre Dame, and Marquette. ( All teams in the final four one at least one conference tournament game. In Fact Kentucky, Louisville and Ohio State all won the conference tournament)

- Since 1990, of the 76 teams making their first NCAA appearance only three of them have won. Sorry South Dakota State and Norfolk State. (Make that 4 now as Norfolk State pulled off the big upset of Missouri)

- Connecticut is 16-1 in the opening round of the NCAA tournament (Make that 16-2 UConn lost to Iowa State )

- Duke has only advanced past the sweet 16 twice since 2001. ( The Blue Devils got upset by Leigh in the first game)

- While Gonzaga has made the big dance 14 straight seasons, they have only reached the sweet 16 twice in the last 10 years. (The Zags lost to Ohio State in the round of 32)

- The last three times Kentucky was a number 1 seed they failed to reach the final four. (The Wildcats made the final four this year in dominating fashion and won the title)

- Missouri has the second most NCAA tournament wins (24) without reaching a final four. (They weren’t even close this year as they lost to Norfolk State in the opening round)

- Since 1997 North Carolina have received 7 number one seeds including this season. In the previous 6 times the Tar Heels have won 2 titles, 2 final fours, and 1 elite eight. (The Heels made it to the Elite 8 this season but could have gone further if it weren’t for injuries)

- Notre Dame has only won 6 games in their last 7 appearances. (The Irish were 0-1 this year losing to Xavier)

- Purdue has won 13 straight round of 64 games in a row. (Make that 14 with their win over St. Mary’s but they lost their next game to Kansas)

- Vanderbilt has lost 3 years in a row to double digit seeds. (They beat a double digit seed in Harvard but they lost to Wisconsin in the next round)

- The ACC has won five titles in the last 11 years. (Won’t happen in this years NCAA tournament)

- The Big East has sent 19 teams to the tournament the last two years, but only 4 of them have advanced to the sweet 16. (4 Big East teams made it to the Sweet 16 this season with 9 teams making the big dance)

- The Horizon league has won at least one game the last 7 years. Kansas in trouble? (Detroit lost to Kansas)

- The Atlantic Ten has won a game in the tournament the last 32 out of the 34 years. (Xavier won two games this year)

- The Northeast Conference is the only conference not to win a game. (Long Island lost to Michigan State)


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